UNHCR’s recognition rate: Relatively high overall, but inconsistent up close

As RSDWatch reported last year, UNHCR is statistically more likely to recognize a refugee claim than an average government. UNHCR recognized 81 percent of the individual RSD applications that its offices decided in 2008, roughly twice the average global recognition rate of 41 percent.*

The UNHCR recognition rate was inflated because it included several asylum-seeker populations that were granted protection through expedited procedures, resulting in recognition rates of 100 or nearly 100 percent. Such groups included Iraqis in Kuwait, Libya, Malaysia, Turkey and Yemen; Burmese in Malaysia; Eritreans in Kenya; Afghans in Syria; and Sri Lankans in Malaysia.

Such statistics indicate a general willingness by UNHCR to extend protection, but may not represent how UNHCR offices decide refugee cases when individual applications are subject to full-fledged RSD.

But even excluding these populations, UNHCR’s adjusted global recognition rate was 64 percent, still much higher than the global average. In real human terms, UNHCR offices rejected 8,032 applications for refugee recognition in 2008, a decline from the year before, and the fewest this decade.

Statistics show inconsistency among UNHCR offices

Recognition rates are a rough index of the effectiveness of a refugee status determination system. Different RSD systems receive different types of asylum seekers. A country that received more Eritrean applications (global recognition rate: 93 percent) will likely post a higher recognition rate than one that receives more Nigerians (global recognition rate: 10 percent), even if they are similar in fairness.

Close analysis of UNHCR’s RSD statistics show that many UNHCR offices are more likely to accept certain nationalities of applicants than governments, confirming UNHCR’s overall relative receptiveness to refugee claims. But some UNHCR offices report substantially lower recognition rates than global averages for certain nationalities.

A lower relative recognition rate does not on its own mean that a UNHCR office is treating a group of asylum-seekers unfairly, or even that it is being particularly strict. Because of differences in migration patterns, the type of asylum-seekers who arrive in one country may differ from another country, even for the same nationality. Where the number of cases decided is particularly small, comparisons can become particularly misleading.

But a low relative recognition rate is nevertheless a useful signal that something may be wrong in the way a UNHCR office is conducting RSD. By analogy, a low recognition rate in RSD is similar to a medical symptom that calls for examination by a physician because it might signal a serious illness. But it may also mean nothing.

UNHCR recognition rates in 2008 compared to government rates, by nationality and UNHCR office

We report below comparative recognition rates for UNHCR offices in 2008, with comparable global and government figures.

UNHCR offices that appeared, statistically, relatively accepting of refugee claims are marked in blue.

UNHCR offices that appeared, statistically, relatively likely to reject refugee claims are marked in red. These statistics call for further investigation of RSD in these field offices.

No color indicates that UNHCR’s recognition rate is comparable to the government average.

* RSDWatch uses a composite recognition rate including both Convention refugee status and complimentary protection in order to produce an index of the likelihood of asylum-seekers receiving at least basic protection in particular countries.